Friday, 23 January 2009

We are now officially in recession - but recessions are not new and they do end!

The media have already started to "state the obvious" today, confirming to us the general public a fact we have probably know for some months now. The UK is officially in recession!

But what does it mean? What should we do? What has happened in the past?

I was in our Ware office this morning and came across some historic documentation, some it dating back to the 1800's about the dealings of the Building Society. I was drawn to a quote from the directors’ report in the 1970 report and accounts, which lead me to look at what was said in other recessionary years. The following quotes are from just such reports, including one from me, which will be in our 2008 report that will be going out to members shortly:

1970 - "The year has been one of uncertainty nationally and it is difficult to forecast the future trend of interest rates. However, it has become clear that Building Societies are now regarded as a secure investment for savings and the movement generally is receiving a record inflow of investment money."

1991 - "The difficulties within the economy that prevailed throughout 1990 intensified during 1991. Although Bank base rates reduced seven times during the year thereby allowing mortgage rates to fall by almost 4%, the damage inflicted to the housing market was all too evident. Falling House prices were recorded in many parts of the Country."

2008 - "In my opinion it has been an extremely difficult year for consumers, where not only did we all have to come to terms with rising inflation driven predominantly by food and energy prices, but we have also had to contend with an uncomfortable level of uncertainty about such things previously regarded as sacrosanct. I am talking of course about the banking and finance industry that has faced a period of unprecedented negativity. The phrase “you can bank on it” may not have quite the same meaning to us all going forward. Against a backdrop of financial meltdown, quite literally for some institutions, it is appropriate that I recount some of the key financial issues facing us all and how Saffron Building Society has coped and will continue to do so in arguably the most uncharted financial waters in documented history."

Recessions will always happen; it is unreasonable to assume that constant growth and economic buoyancy will continue ad infinitum. But if we all hold our nerve, save more, borrow less and spend wisely, this recession will, like all those that have come before, become history and the media will have to find some other source of bad news in an attempt to dampen our spirits.

2 comments:

  1. Playing devil's advocate......

    Should customers be saving now? They get virtually no return for it with the low interest rates. Maybe you should be encouraging them instead to start spending again and help kick start the economy?

    You appear to encourage customers to borrow less. You have the real control here. It's quite a task to get a mortgage currently. Making more mortgages available might help some first time buyers to take advantage of the reducing house prices. Would this not be more effective in moving us out of the recession?

    You also suggest to spend wisely - from what I've seen so far, wise spending is resulting in more Asda stores! Do we really need or want more of those?!

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  2. Hi, I like devils advocates,I do it all the time...
    I think people should always look to save and interest is not the only reason to do so, if you build up a capital sum for a specific goal or simple emergency fund, it will earn better returns when rates go up.

    That said I share some sympathy with your view on spending to boost the economy, as long as there is balance and the spedning is not all on the never never...

    Can't really comment on Asda, although there isn't one near me yet.

    Andy

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